ESPN

I blame the turkey.

What better explanation for my 98-point Week 13 in the Gridiron Challenge, my worst performance since that dreadful 66-point Week 1? Sure, Thanksgiving kicked off nicely; I nailed those Titans and Cowboys picks in most of my pools.

Then dinner arrived, and I loaded up on turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, some sort of creamy bean-like dish … I honestly don't know what that one was, and you know, thinking back on it now, I bet that was where it all went wrong.

Sure, Kurt Warner in the night game was an easy one, but how about that road-team-dominant Sunday? Peyton Manning stunk. Antonio Gates stunk. The Jets, well, stunk.

Sound familiar? A lot of you came along for the Peyton Manning ride, and I can't say I saw that one coming, nor do I expect to see anything like it again this season. Hey, that's fantasy football for you. If you get 'em all right every week, well, you're having one heck of a lucky season.

So with my energy refreshed from that hearty meal, it's back to the drawing board for me -- and some of you, I'm sure -- in the GC this week. Let's get things rolling:

Brett Favre, QB, Jets (6.5 price tag): Last week's stinker aside, Favre has been a more-than-respectable GC pick lately, and his matchups in Weeks 14 and 16 couldn't be more favorable. This week he battles the 49ers, who have a defense that has been ravaged for 72 GC points by opposing quarterbacks in four weeks since their bye. In Week 16 it's the Seahawks, who have allowed the third-most GC points to quarterbacks this season (214, behind only the Cardinals' 219 and Chargers' 215). Sandwiched in between is a home game against the Bills. A tougher matchup, sure, but Buffalo was missing three defensive starters in Week 13, and if that's the case in Week 15, I can't call it a poor matchup for Favre.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs (4.8): The race for top tight end is shaping up as a runaway, with Gonzalez racking up almost half -- 54 of 110 -- of his full-season points in the past four weeks combined. Those 110, by the way, are 31 percent more than any other player at the position, yet Gonzalez is priced only 0.5 higher than the No. 2 tight end on the list (18 percent more). The best part: The Chiefs battle the Broncos and Chargers the next two weeks, and those defenses have allowed respectively the third-most (7.3 per game) and most (10.8) fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills (MIA, 4.9 price tag last week, 4.8 this week): I don't care that he managed only eight points last week, or that he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7. The bottom line is that this is Evans' strongest remaining matchup -- and be aware they're actually all favorable -- and he has three 100-yard receiving games and eight touchdowns in nine career games against the Dolphins. Plus, remember that December history I brought up a week ago? Well, it's officially December now. The guy has 17 receiving touchdowns in 18 career games in that month.

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (@DEN, 5.7 last, 5.7 this): I love when a guy costs second-tier dollars, racks up 15 points, yet doesn't increase in price by a single penny. Johnson remains remarkably cheap, his legs are fresh from his month-plus off at midseason, and his matchup this week is actually more favorable than last. Denver has allowed a total of 414 yards and six scores rushing the past three weeks, and Johnson himself obliterated this defense for 198 yards and two scores in Week 4.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons (@NO, 5.5 last, 5.6 this): Hopefully you locked him in a little cheaper a week ago, but even if you didn't, it's not like a 5.6 price tag is unaffordable. Ryan continues to roll out two-touchdown passing games -- he has five in his past eight games -- and one of those came against these Saints in Week 10 (248 yards, 2 TDs, no picks). In addition, New Orleans will be without cornerback Mike McKenzie, free safety Kevin Kaesviharn and likely defensive end Will Smith too, adversely affecting the team's pass defense. It's a road game, so expect Ryan to attack this defense early and often as the Saints and Falcons engage in a high-scoring affair.

Arizona Cardinals defense/special teams (STL, 4.3 price tag): The last time these teams battled, the Cardinals clobbered the Rams 34-13 and managed 20 GC points defensively, and that game was played in St. Louis, where the Rams tend to play better football. The last time they battled in Arizona? The Cardinals, again, managed 20 GC points, and dominated this team on the scoreboard 48-19. The Cardinals know they can lock up the NFC West with a win this week, and they'll be facing a team that has committed 25 turnovers, second-most in the league, and scored 159 points, second-fewest.

Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings (@DET, 5.2): He managed his best fantasy performance all season against these Lions in Week 6, amassing 19 points, and truth is, the only reason the Lions have moved up to 19th at defending the pass since is they've faced few wide receivers as talented as Berrian the past month. This guy has four 100-yard receiving days and five touchdowns in his past eight games.

Matt Cassel, QB, Patriots (@SEA, 6.0): I take nothing -- nothing -- more from that Week 13 Steelers-Patriots affair than that the Steelers' defense is really, really good. Check out their game logs: Peyton Manning is the only quarterback that has given them fits; they've made Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb and Philip Rivers look ordinary. So it's mulligan city for Cassel in his Week 13 stinker, coupled with a huge bounce-back opportunity for Tom Brady's replacement this week. The Seahawks have served up 300-plus passing yards in five of seven games since their bye, and New England has way too many weapons for that weak secondary to contain.

Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, WRs, Jets (@SF, 4.1 and 4.0): Speaking of bad pass defenses, only the Dolphins (279) and aforementioned Seahawks (275) have allowed more GC points to opposing wide receivers than the 49ers (273). Here's the only knock I have on the Jets' receivers: There's no way you can pick which one makes for the stronger start. Coles is my guy, barely, but what has me encouraged about both is what the Cardinals' receivers did against this defense in Week 10. On that day, Anquan Boldin managed 21 GC points, Larry Fitzgerald 10.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Broncos (KC, 5.0): A month ago, no one knew who he was, and today he's a guy I'd absolutely say is worth using in the Gridiron Challenge. The Broncos have made it clear he's a major part of the offense, as evidenced by his increase from eight rushing attempts in Week 10 to 10 attempts the following week, to 17 and then 22 this past week. Accounting for that workload boost, and the favorable matchup, Hillis is a lock for 20-plus touches. Kansas City ranks 31st against the run, and has allowed 20 rushing touchdowns.

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (CLE, 5.3): He's baaaaaaaaaack! Johnson, LenDale White and the unstoppable Titans running game were up to their old tricks on Thanksgiving, rolling over a dreadful Detroit front seven for 292 yards and four scores. Sure, White lurks to thieve goal-line carries, but Johnson is a quick little fella on his own, with the ability to break off lengthy runs for touchdowns. Cleveland has served up four 100-yard rushing games in the past eight weeks, and I think Johnson is a great bet to make that five in nine, along with at least one touchdown.

Zach Miller, TE, Raiders (@SD, 3.4): If you don't want to spend the money for Tony Gonzalez at tight end, sometimes the smartest fall-back strategy is to nab a low-priced sleeper. Let's face it, tight end has been a terribly underwhelming, unpredictable position as a whole this season. In Miller's case, he managed 15 GC points against the Chargers in Week 4, he's the only player in the Oakland offense drawing as many as five targets per game (5.1), and he's facing a defense that has allowed more GC points to tight ends than anyone (130, or 22 more than the Jets).

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots (@SEA, 5.4): Again, I'm pro-Patriots passing game accounting for the matchup, and Moss is one of the most talented wide receivers in all of football going up against a defense that, as stated above, has allowed the second-most GC points to wide receivers this season. Talk up the skilled Marcus Trufant all you want, but I can't see him being glued to Moss all day. The Seahawks will have to shuffle things up in coverage, leaving Moss open for at least one long score.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (HOU, 6.8): With Ryan Grant's thumb acting up, I'm more in line with the idea the Packers air it out this week instead of thrusting backup Brandon Jackson into a prominent role. The matchup plays in Rodgers' favor; the Texans have served up nine passing scores in their past five games, facing mostly underwhelming competition (Peyton Manning aside). Besides, if the Packers are to have any hope of making the postseason, they're going to need Rodgers to step up and lead them to glory. And now's as good a time for that as any.

Steve Slaton, RB, Texans (@GB, 5.4): So much for resting this kid, because Ryan Moats really doesn't cut it as a timeshare running back. That's the bottom line. Slaton is going to be asked to carry the rock 20 times probably in every remaining game, and for sure they'll do so against this defense. The Packers have served up seven rushing touchdowns the past two weeks combined, and for the year they rank 27th against the run.

Marion Barber, Jake Delhomme, Warrick Dunn, Braylon Edwards, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, DeSean Jackson, Dustin Keller, Jamal Lewis, Donovan McNabb, Santana Moss, Pittsburgh Steelers defense/special teams, Clinton Portis, Philip Rivers, any San Diego Chargers wide receiver and Brian Westbrook.

Total points: 1,457.
Percentage: 95.4. Overall rank: 10,153rd.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 345th.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.